A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
